Radars
Plain-language monitors over the Capital Graph. Findings are propose-only — no auto capital actions.
National lodging debt-wall / DY stress
Stub radar for lodging maturity wall, CMBS refinance path, and debt-yield ≤8% watchlist names. Propose-only — no auto capital actions.
National / cross-market
Recent findings
Hotels remain a material share (~30–35%) of near-term CRE maturity narratives. DY ≤8% names need refinance greenlight + staffing capacity.
Orlando MSA scarcity watch
Monitors whether MSA impact headlines are misread as scarcity. Flags when underwriting ignores which-Orlando nuance (Grande Lakes / Gaylord-class vs corridor select-service).
Market focus: orlando
Recent findings
76.7M visitors and ~$98.6B impact coexist with YE OCC 71.4%. Do not greenlight ground-up on MSA averages. Ask which Orlando: Grande Lakes / Gaylord-class can be scarce.
Vegas visitation softness
Tracks YE visitation give-back, midweek OCC lag, and discrete Strip supply-return events (Hard Rock 2027) against leisure/event demand.
Market focus: las-vegas
Recent findings
38.5M visitors soft; total OCC 80.3% but midweek 76.6%. Thesis: event- and airlift-dependent cyclical, not unstoppable leisure.